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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the current competition is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still