A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
